Climate change to badly hit low-income earners, says ILO report

ISLAMABAD: The International Labour Organisation (ILO) says climate change is driving increasingly severe impacts affecting 71 per cent of workers in 2024, and it will also lead to productivity losses while vulnerable populations will bear the brunt.

The report says that low-income earners across the world, who contribute just 12 per cent of global emissions, will face 75 per cent of income losses from climate-related effects.

Efforts to convert to cleaner sources of energy could lead to the loss of six million jobs in fossil fuel industries, but these efforts may simultaneously create roughly 24 million new jobs in renewable energy and green sectors, according to ILO’s report titled, ‘State of Social Justice: A Work in Progress’ published on Wednesday.

The report says this transition will require a large-scale workforce adjustment, with at least 70 million workers requiring new skills. To manage this upheaval equitably, the ILO has developed guidelines for a “just transition”, advocating for policies that promote decent work, reduce inequality and involve social dialogue to ensure that environmental measures do not deepen existing disparities, the report says.

Six million may lose jobs in fossil fuel industries due to conversion to cleaner sources of energy

According to ILO estimates, the measures needed to limit global warming to a maximum of 2 centigrades may lead to job losses of around 6 million – primarily in the fossil fuel sector. However, these same measures might also create some 24 million jobs, stemming from the adoption of sustainable practices in energy generation, construction and transport. This transformation of employment has already begun in the energy sector.

If job transitions into sustainable agriculture and the circular economy are added to those in energy generation, construction and transport, over 100 million jobs may be created, compared with 80 million that are potentially eliminated. While the net impact upon jobs is positive, this is a massive change in employment that will require reskilling and upskilling of at least 70 million workers, the report says.

It estimates that the labour force will fall in high-income and especially in upper-middle income countries, which will see their labour force fall 5 per cent from 2030 to 2050. Low- and lower-middle-income countries, on the other hand, will see their labour forces continue to grow by roughly 30 per cent between 2030 and 2050.

The report published ahead of the Second World Summit for Social Development in Doha in November, says despite major gains in education, poverty reduction and productivity over the past three decades, entrenched inequalities, fragile trust in institutions and slow progress in key areas continue to hold back social justice worldwide.

The report finds that while the world is wealthier, healthier and better educated than in 1995, the benefits have not been evenly shared and progress in reducing inequality has stalled.

Highlighting stark and persistent deficits, the report points out that 71 per cent of a person’s earnings are still determined by circumstances of birth such as country and sex; informality has fallen by only two percentage points in two decades and still affects 58 per cent of workers; the gender labour force participation gap has narrowed by just three percentage points since 2005 and remains at 24 per cent; and at current rates, it will take a century to close the global gender pay gap.

Published in Brackly News, September 25th, 2025