An emerging binding constraint

The growth of the agriculture sector largely depends on crop yield improvements, which are influenced by several factors. Among these, the nationwide availability of, and farmers’ access to high-yielding, climate-resilient seeds stands out as the most critical determinant of yield, assuming all other conditions remain constant.

History bears this out. The real driving force behind the Green Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s was the breakthrough in high-yielding crop varieties — most notably the semi-dwarf wheat bred by Nobel laureate Norman Borlaug (introduced in Pakistan as Mexi-Pak) and the International Rice Research Institute rice varieties.

Unfortunately, Pakistan has failed to develop a strong and vibrant seed sector. From the farmers’ standpoint, three challenges stand out: the widespread availability of poor-quality seeds, growing reliance on imported seeds, and the escalating proportion of seed costs within total crop production expenses. Taken together, these are turning seed into agriculture’s third binding constraint — alongside land and water.

Substandard seeds have been a major contributor to cotton’s collapse in the country

The impact of decades-long poor performance of the seed sector is already visible. Among several causes, substandard seed has been a major contributor to cotton’s collapse in the country — production has fallen from 13.96 million bales in 2014-15 to barely 7m bales in 2024-25.

This weakness is not confined to cotton alone. Last year, farmers growing hybrid rice suffered heavy losses when imported seed — mostly from China — failed to withstand high temperatures and heatwaves. As a result, the area under hybrid rice cultivation has declined significantly this year.

Similarly, in the most recent spring maize crop, two major seed varieties marketed by well-known multinationals suffered from serious germination and grain formation problems, adding to the woes of thousands of farmers. All these failures reflect the weak oversight of our regulatory bodies.

Another pressing issue is the proliferation of varieties across almost every crop. In just the past five years, the Punjab Seed Council alone has approved 54 new varieties of cotton, 21 of wheat, and 30 of rice. As a result, the total number of listed rice varieties in the country has now crossed 150.

Likewise, the Punjab government’s Cotton Production Plan 2025 — an advisory for farmers — recommended 47 approved (commercial-scale) varieties. Faced with such overwhelming choice, even progressive farmers — let alone illiterate ones — struggle to make the right decision.

Similarly, it is nearly impossible for an extension worker to master the production technology of such a large number of varieties and communicate them effectively to farmers. As a result, farmers follow standard practices instead of variety-specific recommendations, which limit their yields. Such a vast array of varieties also poses significant challenges for traders, stockists, and processors.

In the most recent spring maize crop, two major seed varieties marketed by well-known multinationals suffered from serious germination and grain formation problems

This calls for stricter approval criteria along with more comprehensive adaptability trials so that only a limited number of high-quality varieties with substantial improvement in desired performance traits are released. The problem is compounded when identical or nearly identical imported varieties are approved under different names — a Tweedledee- Tweedledum situation — which confuse not only farmers but also extension workers.

Improved criteria are especially essential now because Pakistan’s agricultural system has grown increasingly complex in recent years with the emergence of new factors. For example, in the past, the priority was to develop cotton varieties resistant to bollworms and Cotton Leaf Curl Virus. Today, however, varieties must also withstand rising temperatures driven by climate change and increasing humidity, as water-intensive crops like rice and sugarcane are now being extensively cultivated in traditional cotton-growing areas.

Likewise, rice yields drop sharply when temperatures exceed 35°C, whereas our rice-growing areas often experience highs above 45°C. Therefore, mandatory two-year, multi-location adaptability trials (for variety approval) should be conducted in hot districts such as Rahimyar Khan, DG Khan, and Jacobabad. These trials must be designed so that the crop enters its pollination phase between May 20 and June 20 — the hottest period of the year. A variety that can withstand these conditions is likely to perform reliably across Pakistan.

Moreover, intensifying water shortages and the rising prices of fertilisers are becoming critical challenges for farmers. Therefore, low-input responsive varieties must be given greater weight in the criteria.

In addition, since Pakistan has already achieved satisfactory yields in wheat and rice — the country’s major staple crops — the focus must now shift to approving high-yielding, bio-fortified varieties that also provide essential micronutrients. A successful example is the zinc-enriched wheat variety Akbar-2019, which is now widely cultivated. Such varieties are vital in a country where 45 per cent of people live below the poverty line and struggle to get adequate food, let alone a balanced diet.

Many experts argue that Pakistan, like many other countries, should adopt the truth-in-labelling (TIL) seed system, which relies on the producer’s own guarantee of quality rather than mandatory government varietal approval — a process that currently takes around three years.

Notably, Pakistan’s seed regulatory system is already fragile, constrained by limited human and institutional capacity. Introducing TIL, which demands vigilant oversight down to the point of sale, could risk turning the seed market into a free-for-all.

In conclusion, federal and provincial governments remain focused on launching new credit schemes for farmers — their supposed panacea for each challenge. Yet such schemes often backfire, as farmers purchase inputs on credit, and when poor yields follow, they are unable to repay the loans.

If the government truly intends to improve agriculture and uplift farmers’ livelihoods, it must instead make concerted efforts and sustained investments in strengthening the seed sector, including varietal approval processes and regulatory oversight.

Dr Waqar Ahmad is a former associate professor at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Khalid Wattoo is a development professional and a farmer

Published in Brackly News, The Business and Finance Weekly, September 22nd, 2025