ISLAMABAD — Pakistan’s headline inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased to 6.2% year-on-year (YoY) in October 2025, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday. The reading exceeded the Ministry of Finance’s projection of 5–6% for the month.
The CPI had recorded 5.6% in September 2025 and 6.9% in October 2024. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, inflation rose by 1.8% in October 2025, compared to 2.0% in September and 1.2% in October 2024. According to Optimus Capital Management, this marks the highest inflation rate since November 2024.
Urban inflation rose by 6% YoY in October 2025, compared to 5.5% in September and 9.3% in October 2024. On a MoM basis, it remained unchanged at 1.5%. Rural inflation increased by 6.6% YoY, up from 5.8% in September and 4.2% in October 2024. On a MoM basis, it rose by 2.3%, compared to 2.8% a month earlier.
The Ministry of Finance, in its monthly outlook released last week, attributed the inflation uptick to temporary flood-related disruptions and border closures affecting essential commodities. It projected inflation to stay within 5–6% for October and remain within the fiscal year 2025–26 target range.
Pakistan has faced severe flooding since late June 2025, which intensified through September and primarily affected densely populated areas in Punjab.
Earlier, the World Bank projected that the flood-related shock to food supply could push inflation to 7.2% in fiscal year 2026 before easing to 6.8% in fiscal year 2027 as food supply, commodity prices, and exchange rates stabilize.
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