Pakistan’s consumer inflation is expected to inch up in November 2025, with analysts projecting a year-on-year CPI reading of 6.5–7.0%, compared to 6.25% in October and 4.86% in November 2024, according to estimates by Topline Research. On a month-on-month basis, inflation is forecast to rise 0.8%.
The brokerage firm attributes the MoM increase primarily to a 1.52% rise in food prices, driven by supply disruptions linked to recent floods and the closure of the Afghan border.
Major contributors to food inflation include onions (59%), chicken (16%), meat (15%) and fresh vegetables (12%). Tomato prices, however, fell sharply by 56% after a spike last month.
The housing, water, electricity and gas group is projected to increase 0.79% MoM, largely because of a 2.83% rise in electricity charges. The negative quarterly tariff adjustment of Rs1.8881/kWh applied from August to October was not carried forward, while November’s fuel charges adjustment stood at –Rs0.4812/kWh (compared to Rs0.0796/kWh in October).
Transport inflation is expected to remain nearly flat, declining 0.05% MoM, as a 1% drop in petrol prices was offset by a 0.8% rise in high-speed diesel.
With CPI likely settling between 6.5% and 7%, real interest rates for November are projected at 400–450 basis points, well above Pakistan’s historical average of 200–300bps.
Topline cautioned that volatility in global commodity prices remains the key risk to the inflation outlook in the months ahead.
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