India relaunches ‘water war’, violates IWT by manipulating Chenab flows

• India abruptly releases, then cuts Chenab flows to 870 cusecs.
• Baglihar Dam emptying, refilling termed deliberate manipulation.
• IWT remains binding despite India’s unilateral suspension.
  

India has reignited a “water war” during the winter season by abruptly releasing a large volume of water into the Chenab River at Head Marala before sharply reducing the flow to between 870 and 1,000 cusecs for four consecutive days.

According to officials, the Modi administration abruptly released 58,000 cusecs of water during the midnight hours of December 7 and 8, 2025, The News reported on Thursday.

Subsequently, on December 13, India sharply reduced the releases to an alarmingly low level of 870 cusecs, which remained between 870 and 1,000 cusecs until December 17. Historical data shows that average Chenab River flows over the past 10 years during this period ranged from a maximum of 10,000 cusecs to a minimum of 4,000 cusecs. 

Pakistani authorities said India violated the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 by first emptying the Baglihar Hydropower Project reservoir and then refilling it, despite the fact that run-of-the-river projects on rivers allocated to Pakistan could not be arbitrarily emptied and refilled. 

The Court of Arbitration, in its decision dated August 8, 2025, had already declared that India’s manipulation of water releases — through the emptying and filling of dams on rivers allocated to Pakistan — constitutes water weaponisation.

Speaking to The News correspondent, Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters Syed Mehr Ali Shah confirmed the development and said he had written a formal letter to his Indian counterpart, emphasising that the Indus Waters Treaty remains fully in force, as affirmed by the Court of Arbitration. 

He said the letter provided specific scientific evidence of India’s actions, demonstrating that the emptying and subsequent filling of Baglihar Dam was not due to natural hydrometeorological factors but amounted to deliberate manipulation of water resources. 

Shah said the letter was issued under Article VI(1)(a) and (b) of the IWT, seeking an exchange of detailed water-release data. Additionally, under Article VIII(1)(a) and (4)(b), Pakistan requested immediate consultations so that the implications of sudden variations in water releases could be addressed promptly.

It is pertinent to note that on April 23, 2024, India unilaterally suspended the treaty. However, the Court of Arbitration later clarified that India could not suspend the treaty unilaterally and that it remained legally binding.

Pakistan’s National Security Committee, which met on April 24, 2024, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in the chair, vehemently rejected India’s announcement to hold the treaty in abeyance and declared that any stoppage of water by India would be considered an act of war.