Agriculture: Higher education declining, agri hit hardest

Pakistan’s universities hit a record 2.2 million students in the 2020-21 academic year. From that point on, the student enrolment began to decline, and in 2022-23, university enrolment fell by 13 per cent in just one year.

This decline comes at a time when the number of universities has risen from 220 to 269 over the past five years — 169 in the public sector and 110 in the private sector. A similar trend emerges at the degree college level, where enrolment has fallen from its peak of 771,600 students in 2019-20 to under 650,000 in 2023-24.

Notably, the latest Economic Survey of Pakistan (Education) skipped actual enrolment figures for FY24 and FY25; therefore, it is difficult to gauge the true extent of the crisis. However, evidence from the current admission cycle reinforces a grim outlook.

The current admissions cycle for BSc honours and master’s programmes is nearing its end, yet most public universities — with some exceptions — continue to struggle to fill their allocated seats.

Despite repeated admission advertisements, extended deadlines, relaxed admissions criteria, fee waivers for high achievers, and a host of other promotional measures, the outcomes remain disappointing. Many academic programmes have failed to attract even a quarter of their sanctioned intake.

Pakistan’s tertiary (higher) education enrolment rate remains critically low at 11.2pc in 2023, as reported by the World Bank. This lags behind India (33pc), Bangladesh (23pc), and Iran (61pc). This disparity is particularly alarming for a nation that prides itself on its youth bulge, often hailed as its demographic asset.

Many universities struggle to pay staff, while rising fees push university education beyond the reach of a large segment of society

Financial constraints of universities are a major underlying factor in this crisis. In FY19, the Higher Education Commission’s budget stood at Rs111 billion — Rs65bn in recurring and Rs46bn in development expenditures. By FY26, however, it had fallen to Rs105.9bn (Rs66.4bn in recurring and Rs39.5bn in development expenses), despite years of cumulative inflation and a growing number of universities.

With shrinking government support, universities have been compelled to pursue financial self-sufficiency. In response, many have raised tuition fees, introduced new academic programmes, and expanded existing ones. Yet, despite these measures, a number of universities continue to struggle to pay staff salaries on time, let alone invest in research — the hallmark of higher education globally. Rising fees, meanwhile, have pushed university education beyond the reach of a large segment of society, already reeling from a 45pc poverty rate.

In addition, Pakistan’s stagnant economy does not offer considerable financial returns on higher qualifications, while unemployment among degree holders continues to rise. Equally responsible is the outdated education system, which fails to align with modern needs. Consequently, a growing number of students now view higher education as a waste of time and money, turning instead to micro-credentials to secure self- or wage-employment or attempting to go abroad, legally or illegally.

Within this broader context, agricultural universities are facing even deeper distress as enrolment in agricultural programmes continues to decline. Traditionally, they largely attracted students from lower-middle and poor rural families.

Yet, recent developments in the agriculture sector — lack of investment, rising input costs, greater production risks linked to climate change, and heightened price volatility after the abolition of support prices — have made the sector unattractive to its traditional student base. On top of this, consecutive crop losses over the past two years have strained rural household finances, rendering university education increasingly unaffordable.

In the past, many students from agricultural families enrolled to manage their family farms along modern lines. Over time, however, these farms have steadily shrunk due to successive inheritance divisions. Today, 97pc are under 12 acres — far too small to generate income that matches a graduate’s opportunity cost.

Moreover, the role and influence of dealers in the fertiliser and pesticide sectors – once among the largest employers of agricultural graduates – have grown substantially. Dealers now act as sellers, marketers, and technical experts, leveraging their financial capacity to sell agricultural inputs on credit.

Consequently, small companies now prefer providing incentives to these dealers to achieve sales targets rather than hiring young graduates. Similarly, job opportunities in the public sector are steadily shrinking.

Given the circumstances, what is the future of our agricultural universities and colleges, with their vast infrastructure and human resources?

One option is for them to reposition themselves from specialised to full-spectrum universities. Many already offer programmes beyond their core fields. They could gradually reduce agricultural intake while expanding into courses that have high demand in local and international markets — particularly those requiring minimal new infrastructure or laboratory upgrades. Yet, success depends on designing curricula and pedagogy that integrate emerging technologies, in line with global trends.

A second option is workforce export. Countries such as Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Germany and many others are seeking a skilled agricultural workforce.

The government should pursue long-term agreements to supply trained manpower, creating both employment opportunities abroad and incentives for students to enrol in agricultural programmes. Nevertheless, this necessitates upgrading course content to meet host-country needs, improving laboratories, strengthening faculty capacity, and building students’ language proficiency.

But all this requires greater funding for higher education. Whether focusing on human development or ever-growing road infrastructure, the government must set clear priorities. Yet, the fact is that without strengthening higher education, the nation can’t dream of economic growth and technological progress.

Khalid Wattoo is a development professional and a farmer, and Dr Waqar Ahmad is a former associate professor at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad.

Published in Brackly News, The Business and Finance Weekly, September 15th, 2025