Agriculture: In the aftermath of the floods

Floodwaters are now heading for their ultimate destination: the Arabian Sea. The Indus River meets the sea in the coastal districts of Thatta and Sujawal through various creeks. Flash floods triggered by extreme weather events this year were initially reported in Khyber Pakhtunkhaw, resulting in massive loss of life and property.

Then, after a long time, floods were seen in the eastern rivers: Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej. Chenab had a massive flow of close to 1.1 million cusecs in late August, spelling disaster in south Punjab. Till the third week of September, the Punjab government remained busy in flood fighting.

That economic and infrastructural losses would be worth billions in two provinces was a foregone conclusion. Flooding and breaches caused widespread damage to the agriculture sector of the largest province, besides population displacement.

After a decade, a flow involving over 600,000 cusecs discharge passed through Guddu and Sukkur. Back in 2015, Guddu had passed 735,246 cusecs of flow after receiving a discharge of 754,005 cusecs on August 3, 2015. Sukkur received an inflow of 703,656 cusecs on Aug 4, passing 660,276 cusecs discharge downstream.

Water regulators and farmers anticipate a comfortable 2025-26 Rabi season after flood hardships and lost crops in May

Kotri barrage, however, had an inflow of 626,193 cusecs and an outflow of 600,018 cusecs in Sept 2022 but only on account of flooding from Balochistan that ended up in Manchhar Lake. The lake was breached to let flows enter the Indus River. Kotri, however, is expected to pass a discharge of 400,000-450,000 cusecs now.

As far as Sindh, the tail-end province of the Indus River system, is concerned, regeneration of riverine forests, replenishing of groundwater aquifers, growth in mangroves (coastal forests) and a relatively better Rabi crop season is now likely in view of this flooding. Floodwaters have inundated most of the low-lying riverine area and at some locations touched both dykes of the river. Even highlands in katcha areas were submerged, leading to the evacuation of dwellers.

Water regulators and farmers anticipate a comfortable 2025-26 Rabi season that will start in October. Last year 20 per cent water shortage was predicted by the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) in Rabi season, but Irsa’s Director of Operations Khalid Idrees Rana seems complacent. “We are entering the Rabi season with a carryover in two reservoirs. Tarbela Dam currently has a storage of 5.8 million acre feet (MAF) and Mangla Dam 7 MAF, so Mangla is considered to have more storage capacity than Tarbela,” he explained.

He optimistically expects to have 1 MAF carryover cumulatively in Tarbela and Mangla Dams by March 31, 2026, when the Kharif season will commence — if the winter rainfall system remains supportive — and if the link canals’ operation are not be needed early in the season to divert water from the Indus to the Jhelum-Chenab zone. He mentioned that currently Mangla flows were being used only for the Upper Jhelum Canal, which doesn’t have any other water source. Inflows at Mangla had dropped only in Sept 2019; otherwise, it invariably had 25,000 to 30,000 cusecs of inflows.

Sindh’s member in Irsa, Mohammad Ehsan Leghari, pointed out if run-of-the-river flows came into effect, the situation would be better. “Soil in many areas has moisture, thus needs less water for winter cropping. Still, the Irsa Advisory Committee will be in a better position in October to assess water availability,” he said.

This Kharif season, initially, severe water shortage had hit Sindh, especially at the time of flowering and fruit setting of mangoes. Furthermore, it had negative implications for cotton, whose acreage dropped significantly as per the agriculture department’s figures.

“It appears to be all good news for Sindh in terms of floods that offer a chance to the river’s ecosystem to live, although most of its riverine forests have been eradicated,” remarked Sindh Abadgar Board president Mahmood Nawaz Shah. Still, he said, floods have regenerated aquifers and water bodies. “I don’t rule out bumper Kharif crops in the current year due to better water availability and beneficial rainfall,” he said. He, however, also called for modernising the irrigation system and said floods were once again a stark reminder for decision makers to free natural waterways.

River flows – a finite source – have brought plenty of silt, in addition to water flows, not only to benefit riverine soil for regeneration of the forests but also for improving the biodiversity of the belt. An informal assessment done by Vice Chancellor Sindh Agriculture University (SAU) Tandojam Prof Dr Altaf Siyal estimated 9.4 MAF conveyance losses of water from April to date between Guddu and Kotri barrages.

“A major part, or 80pc, of this 9.4 MAF has gone into soil through seepage, thus recharging the groundwater aquifer,” he said. According to the break-up of his calculation, out of 9.4 MAF, 2.4 MAF was recorded between Guddu and Sukkur and 7 7MAF between Sukkur and Kotri. Conveyance losses are more between Guddu and Sukkur (230 cusecs per km) than between Sukkur and Kotri (110 cusecs per km).

Published in Brackly News, The Business and Finance Weekly, September 22nd, 2025