CORPORATE WINDOW: Entrenched status quo

Pakistani business circles draw comfort from the surging nationalist sentiment after repelling Indian aggression, coupled with easing inflation, stronger reserves, higher remittances and improved fiscal and trade balances.

Though Pakistan lags behind regional peers on human development, they believe these factors, for now, insulate the country from a youth-led uprising like those in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, or Nepal.

“The country may not be out of the shadows yet, but after a long time, things seem to be looking up. It is now up to the government to consolidate gains, manage flood losses effectively, negotiate waivers with the IMF [International Monetary Fund] and rebuild better partnerships with the private sector,” a business leader said anonymously, voicing private sector concerns.

A brief four-day conflict with India in May reaffirmed Pakistan’s defence capability and was celebrated nationwide. For citizens who gauge progress by changes in their own livelihoods, upbeat macroeconomic indicators alone had failed to inspire confidence.

Credibility gaps in governance persist. IMF-guided stabilisation measures have strained family budgets through higher taxes and withdrawn subsidies, while the prolonged post-pandemic economic crisis has eroded whatever cushion households once had. Weak, jobless growth and a steady decline in living standards, coupled with political frustrations, were understood to be driving public discontent to perilous levels.

‘In Pakistan, civilian governments change frequently; that leaves little need or motivation for mass agitation’

The Human Rights Watch’s World Report 2025 underscores the gravity of Pakistan’s situation.

“With poverty, inflation, and unemployment soaring, Pakistan’s economic crisis jeopardised rights to health, food, and an adequate standard of living for millions. The IMF programme, tied to austerity measures such as subsidy cuts without adequate safeguards, imposed further hardships on low-income groups.”

The confusion-weary private sector, already burdened by heavy taxation, soaring energy costs and clipped concessions under IMF conditions, has been closely monitoring social and political undercurrents, fearing a spark could push public discontent onto the streets. The fall of once fairly stable governments, most notably in South Asia’s rising star Bangladesh, has deepened unease. Business leaders quietly worry that youth-driven anger could one day turn not just against the state and power pillars seen as unfair and self-serving but also against their own class.

Asked about the likelihood of Pakistan facing a youth-led unrest similar to Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, or Nepal, Miftah Ismail, former finance minister and co-founder of Awam Pakistan Party, dismissed the prospect. “Such protests are usually organic and triggered by seemingly minor events that strike a chord with the people. But I don’t really think it’s likely in Pakistan,” he remarked.

“Yes, we have grown poorer over the last three years, with poverty and unemployment at very high levels, and the controversially elected government is quite unpopular. Yet I don’t think people are ready to take to the streets to overthrow it. In Pakistan, civilian governments change frequently; they are not seen as very powerful, and most people expect this one to collapse sooner or later under its own contradictions, incompetence and unpopularity. That leaves little need or motivation for mass agitation,” he argued.

A former federal secretary with experience across key economic ministries, however, cautioned against ruling out widespread unrest unless the government abandons its ‘self-congratulatory mode’ and urgently tackles low investment, premature deindustrialisation and weak capital formation.

“The unskilled, jobless youth bulge is a ticking time bomb, especially in the urban areas. Rising unemployment directly fuels crime. Deindustrialisation and capital flight, evident in cases like Bahria Town’s Dubai investment, pose grave risks to socioeconomic and political stability. What’s most worrying is the federal and provincial governments’ neglect of growth and job creation, coupled with their blind adherence to IMF dictates.”

An independent economist argued that a decisive pro-people policy shift driven by public pressure is unlikely in the foreseeable future, as the entrenched status quo forces continue to consolidate power. “Pakistan won’t see any such uprising,” he said, referring to Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal.

“We face countless problems, but Pakistan’s security apparatus plays a peculiar role. In those countries, security personnel refused to fire on their own people; Pakistan’s record in this regard is far less reassuring,” he observed. “Given past crackdowns, people are now too fearful to protest.”

Another analyst close to the government dismissed the debate as contrived, aimed at undermining its record. “It’s pointless to draw parallels between states with distinct dynamics,” he argued. “Why rush to comparisons without grasping the real triggers or the costs of regime change? Look at Bangladesh; its economy was doing better before Sheikh Hasina’s ouster, but the turmoil has carried a heavy price.”

Sri Lanka’s economy went into freefall after its 2022 sovereign default, with IMF conditions intensifying public hardships and sparking unrest that toppled the government.

In contrast, Bangladesh, growing steadily at around 6pc for years, cut poverty by two-thirds — from 44 per cent in 1991 to 12pc in 2024 — climbed the Human Development Index and emerged as South Asia’s second-largest economy with the region’s highest per capita income. At the time of filing, the government’s economic team had yet to respond.n

Published in Brackly News, Young World, September 22nd, 2025