The Central Power Purchasing Agency–Guaranteed (CPPA-G) has submitted five scenarios for determining the Power Purchase Price (PPP) for the 2026 calendar year, proposing rates between Rs25.69 and Rs26.53 per unit depending on demand growth, hydrology, fuel costs, and currency trends.
According to a report by Business Recorder, the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) will hold a public hearing on November 18 to review the petition, which outlines price forecasts under various economic conditions.
As per the filing, CPPA-G’s analysis projects the PPP at Rs25.95 per unit in Scenario 1, Rs26.53 in Scenario 2, Rs25.73 in Scenario 3, Rs26.20 in Scenario 4, and Rs25.69 in Scenario 5.
Scenario 1 assumes a 1% rise in demand, a Rs280 exchange rate per U.S. dollar, and stable hydrology and fuel prices. Scenario 2 uses the same demand assumption but a Rs300 exchange rate, while Scenario 3 factors in 2.5% demand growth. Scenario 4 accounts for high fuel prices and a Rs330 exchange rate, and Scenario 5 reflects low fuel prices with a Rs300 exchange rate.
Other parameters applied uniformly across scenarios include U.S. inflation at 2.3%, Pakistan’s inflation at 7.74%, KIBOR at 11%, and NTDC transmission losses at 2.6%. Transmission charges and the Market Operator Fee (MOF) collectively add around Rs1.91 per unit to the projected PPP.
CPPA-G estimated total power purchases of up to 127,815 GWh under different scenarios, with capacity charges forming the largest cost component—ranging between Rs15.45 and Rs16.07 per kilowatt-hour.
The petition stated that the projections were developed “following extensive consultations with relevant stakeholders” and that the results are “indicative in nature and may change on account of variation of underlying assumptions, including fuel prices, exchange rate parity, and demand forecasts.”
CPPA-G urged Nepra to incorporate these projections, alongside its own independent assessment, to finalize monthly reference prices for 2026.
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