Govt rebuffs Aptma’s concerns on IGCEP

ISLAMABAD: The Power Division has dismissed concerns raised by the All Pakistan Textile Mills As­­sociation (Aptma) regarding the government’s power generation planning, particularly the Indicative Gen­eration Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2025-35.

In its comments sent to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra), the Power Division rejected Aptma’s criticism, describing it as flawed and based on unrealistic assumptions. The Power Division argued that the plan represents a major shift towards affordability, transparency, and sustainability, and that Aptma’s comments misrepresented the facts.

The Power Division highlighted that the revised IGCEP, compared to previous plans, would save an estimated $17bn by removing 7,000MW of previously committed projects. This reduction would prevent an incre­ase in the cost of electricity by approximately Rs4.96 per unit (kWh). The plan’s central objective, it stressed, is to provide reliable and low-cost electricity to the public through the selection of cost-effective projects.

The government also defended its demand forecasting methodology, which it said had been validated by international consultants. The model used regression analysis, incorporating GDP growth and electricity prices as key drivers to predict demand, rather than relying on population growth as Aptma had suggested.

Additionally, the Power Division pointed to a bottom-up forecasting approach, where each Distribution Company (Disco) contributes feeder-level data to form an aggregate system forecast. The results of this process were consistent with the regression-based global forecast, ensuring accuracy and reliability.

Power Division defends the plan as transparent and cost-efficient, aimed at reducing future electricity costs and enhancing energy security

Aptma had also claimed that the current IGCEP failed to consider emerging trends like distributed solar generation. The Power Division refuted this, stating that such factors were explicitly accounted for in the new plan.

Furthermore, it emphasised that the current iteration of IGCEP places a stronger focus on indigenous energy sources, including hydro, solar, wind, and nuclear power, reducing the reliance on imported fuels such as coal and RLNG. This shift, the Division argued, will save billions of dollars in foreign exchange and enhance the country’s energy security.

On the issue of high capacity charges, the Power Division clarified that recent additions of nuclear and local coal projects were necessary to meet energy security goals. While these projects come with higher fixed costs, they result in much lower energy costs, contributing to long-term affordability. The plan’s focus on a mix of renewables and the eventual phase-out of older thermal plants will help reduce capacity payments over time, resulting in lower overall tariffs for consumers.

The Power Division also reminded Aptma that power planning must account for long-term trends and future demand, beyond current consumption levels. As cities expand, industries grow, and new technologies emerge, the need for forward-looking energy planning becomes crucial. The Grid Code’s transparent and consultative framework for demand forecasting, it said, ensures that the IGCEP is both realistic and sustainable, supporting Pakistan’s long-term economic growth and energy security.

Published in Brackly News, September 30th, 2025