OMC volumes rise 9% MoM in October 2025, PSO market share hits 43%, sector poised for 6% growth in FY26: Report

Pakistan oil marketing companies (OMCs) witnessed a stable performance in October 2025, with overall volumes remaining flat year-on-year (YoY) at 1.5 million tons but showing a 9% month-on-month (MoM) increase. 

According to AKD Securities, the growth was primarily driven by a strong surge in High-Speed Diesel (HSD) sales, which rose 4% YoY and 21% MoM to around 714,000 tons. This was supported by higher demand from goods ports, import-export activities, the Kharif harvest season, and rising mining haulage, especially in the Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions.

However, Motor Spirit (MS) sales saw a slight decline of 2% YoY and 4% MoM, totaling 657,000 tons, largely attributed to the elasticity of demand as fuel prices rose by Rs 4.07 per liter in October. 

Despite this, retail fuel demand remained resilient, with a 4% YoY increase in the first four months of FY26, bolstered by the broader economic recovery and double-digit growth in auto sales.

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) recorded a total sales volume of 643,000 tons in October 2025, down 8% YoY but showing a strong 13% MoM growth, leading to a market share of approximately 43% for the month, compared to 41.6% in September. The decline in MS and HSD sales contributed to the YoY fall, but a 49% YoY increase in HOBC sales helped mitigate the impact.

For the first four months of FY26, PSO’s cumulative sales amounted to 2.27 million tons, a 2% YoY decline, while the overall sector grew by 4%. The company is expected to close FY26 with a 5% YoY increase in volumes, following a solid performance in 2025.

WAFI reported a 14% YoY increase in its sales for October, reaching 121,000 tons, led by a sharp 32% YoY growth in HSD and a 62% YoY jump in HOBC. 

Cumulatively, WAFI’s sales for 4MFY26 reached 450,000 tons, representing a 19% YoY increase. The company’s market share for the period stood at 8.4%, up from 7.3% in the same period last year, making it the fastest-growing OMC in the listed sector.

OMC sales saw a 4% YoY increase in the first four months of FY25, with authorities collecting Rs 487 billion under the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) head. The government has set a target of Rs 1.47 trillion for FY26, representing a 20% YoY increase from Rs 1.22 trillion collected in FY25. With a 6% YoY growth forecast for sector sales, it is expected that the annual target will be comfortably met.

AKD Securities forecasts a 6% YoY growth for the OMC sector in FY26, driven by stable fuel prices and a recovery in commercial and industrial activity. The brokerage house also expects a revision in OMC margins during 2HFY26, alongside a recovery in volume and positive impacts from the resolution of circular debt and renegotiation of RLNG cargoes for PSO.