Pakistan loses $600 million to illegal crypto transactions as dollar sales to banks fall 23%

Pakistan has lost an estimated $600 million to illegal cryptocurrency transactions this year, reducing the flow of dollars into the banking system by 23% as buyers purchase cash from exchange companies and divert it into crypto through unlawful channels, Dawn reported. 

Exchange companies say customers continue to buy dollars from licensed firms, deposit them into their foreign currency (FCY) accounts and then withdraw the cash to purchase cryptocurrencies through unregulated platforms. Between January and October, around $400 million was retained in FCY accounts, while roughly $600 million exited the system without trace.

The Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan reported that dollar sales to banks fell significantly during the first 10 months of the year. Banks received about $4 billion from exchange firms last year over the same period, compared to only $3 billion this year. 

“These disappeared dollars were mostly invested in cryptocurrencies,” the association’s chairman Malik Bostan said.

Recent State Bank directives require both banks and exchange firms to avoid issuing cash dollars for FCY deposits and instead transfer the funds directly into customers’ accounts. Exchange firms now transfer money electronically or issue cheques, but the dollars are still being withdrawn from banks before being routed into crypto, Bostan added.

Despite tight monitoring at borders with Afghanistan and Iran, the downward trend in dollar sales continued during the first four months of FY25. Exchange firms sold $280 million in July ($333 million in 2024), $163 million in August ($295 million), $186 million in September ($214 million) and $244 million in October ($297 million). Total sales fell from $1.139 billion in July–Oct 2024 to $873 million in the same period this year, a 23% decline.

Meanwhile, State Bank data shows commercial banks’ dollar holdings increased from $4.180 billion in January to $4.625 billion, a rise of $425 million, reflecting changes in market behaviour and tighter controls on informal flows.

Pakistan’s dollar pressures have persisted for years, leaving the country close to default in 2023 before it secured an IMF bailout. Import restrictions and crackdowns on illegal currency trading helped stabilise the situation, but rising use of cryptocurrencies now poses new challenges for policymakers trying to conserve foreign exchange.

The government is preparing to re-enter the international debt market with fresh bonds, including Panda Bonds in China. SBP reserves currently stand at $14.551 billion and officials expect them to reach $17 billion by the end of FY26, supported by stronger remittances and an anticipated $1.2 billion IMF tranche.